I know you‘ve been following the rumors about Apple‘s VR/AR headset. Well, the long-anticipated Vision Pro is finally real! Apple unveiled it at last week‘s WWDC with all the usual slick marketing bravado. However, its shockingly high $3,499 price tag made your jaw drop. I totally get why you asked me: "is this thing gonna be a total flop?"
Let me start out by saying this is definitely no impulse buy gadget. As an experienced tech analyst, I can easily see why that astronomical pricing causes sticker shock. But as an Apple fanboy at heart, I‘m still on the fence if the Vision Pro is doomed for failure. I think it has some wicked futuristic tech that could give Apple a gateway into the metaverse. But competition is fierce and mainstream success depends greatly on Apple‘s long-term strategy here.
First off, let‘s quickly recap what the Vision Pro offers…
An Unapologetically Premium "Pro" Headset
We expected Apple to pack loads of advanced hardware into this device. And they certainly delivered on that front:
- Apple M2 chip (same as latest MacBooks)
- 12 cameras for tracking
- 2 4K micro-OLED displays
- Runs visionOS operating system
With augmented reality modes that overlay digital content onto real world views through the see-through lenses, it can serve as a multipurpose display device.
But all this bleeding-edge tech results in steep pricing only diehard Apple fans can likely justify. The Vision Pro costs twice as much as premium competitors like the HTC VIVE XR Elite. Here‘s a straightforward specs/pricing breakdown:
| Headset | Price | Key Features |
|---|---|---|
| Apple Vision Pro | $3,499 | M2 chip, 12 cameras, AR/VR, visionOS |
| HTC VIVE XR Elite | $1,099 | 5K resolution, steamVR support |
| Meta Quest Pro | $1,500 | Mixed reality functions |
You can clearly see where the "Pro" designation comes from. This is a pricey, high-capability headset targeting commercial use cases over consumers right now. Growth will need to come from the enterprise market‘s dollars initially. However, VR headset sales across the board remain a fairly small market estimated at only 15 million units annually:
So Apple faces adoption challenges as is – and needs to convince businesses this does things alternative headsets simply cannot.
Lessons to Be Learned from Past Flops
As an Apple historian, I can‘t help but draw parallels to previous failures whenever they launch an entirely new product category like this. Remember the Power Mac G4 Cube? That quirky little desktop remains one of Apple‘s biggest misfires thanks to its high price and lack of practical utility.
However, Apple tends to learn important lessons from flops:
- 2003 – Power Mac G4 Cube discontinued after 1 year
- 2018 – HomePod speaker failed due to high $349 cost
- 2022 – HomePod Mini hits market at just $99
See the pattern here? The original HomePod didn‘t resonate at several hundreds dollars more than competitors. But Apple eventually bounced back with the ultra-cheap HomePod Mini.
They identify parts of a product strategy that were flawed and realign accordingly. Rinse and repeat until achieving mass market viability. So don‘t expect Apple to abandon VR efforts fully – the Vision Pro likely kicks off an iterative journey towards an eventual hit.
Pricing & Software Hold Keys to Future Success
I ultimately believe two crucial factors determine if the Vision Pro will sink or swim over the next 3-5 years:
1. Mainstream pricing strategy: Apple should target under $1,000 price range eventually for true consumer adoption. Maybe they launch a stripped-down VR headset named just Vision (sans Pro) at around $799 soon.
2. Compelling professional use cases: visionOS and apps need rapid, continuous advancements tailored for commercial applications. I‘m talking niche workflows you absolutely cannot complete on an iPad or MacBook alone.
Additionally, industrial design and form factor must shrink over generations a la Apple Watch to become a more subtle, fashionable product. But the most urgent selling point is conveying day-to-day utility you simply can‘t get elsewhere. Not justimmersive entertainment – but enabling new modes of spatial computing and collaboration.
Do I think Apple will lose steam or call it quits if the Vision Pro stumbles out the gates? Not a chance – they powered through far too many product duds already to throw in the towel here. Much like early Apple Watches, give this ambitious hardware time to evolve. In a few years, slick AR glasses could very well replace our phones! But only if Apple plays their cards right here on out.
Let me know what other thoughts you have on Apple‘s metaverse moves!
