In March 2023, Elon Musk and Tesla unveiled an ambitious new strategic plan dubbed "Master Plan Part 3" aimed at eliminating fossil fuels entirely through a global transition to renewable electricity. Unlike Musk‘s previous plans focused on electric vehicles, Part 3 tackles the full energy ecosystem across electricity, transport, buildings, industry and more. The vision is to enable a "sustainable energy economy" that meets the world‘s needs without destructive environmental harm.
Musk outlined 6 primary steps that Tesla believes can transition civilization to 100% clean energy:
- Repower Grid – Shift all electricity generation to renewable sources like solar, wind and hydro
- Expand Electric Transport – Electrify cars, trucks, trains, ships and other conveyances
- Electrify Buildings & Industry – Replace gas furnaces and fuel burning with electric heat pumps
- Sustainable High-Temp Applications – Use electricity instead of fossil fuels for steel manufacturing, cement production and more
- Sustainable Aviation & Shipping – Develop biofuels and synthetic e-fuels for long-distance planes and vessels
- Construct Sustainable Economy – Build solar panels, wind turbines, batteries and infrastructure for massive scaling of renewables
Below we analyze each step of the plan in more detail…
Step 1 – Repower the Electric Grid with 100% Renewables
Today‘s global electricity grid runs on about 46 petawatt-hours per year (PWh/yr) of fossil fuels like coal and natural gas. After upstream losses, this generates 26PWh of end-use electricity. Tesla‘s plan calls for replacing 100% of this capacity with renewable power from solar, wind, hydroelectric and geothermal instead.
| Generation Source | 2022 Capacity (PWh/yr) | % of Total |
|---|---|---|
| Coal | 14 | 25% |
| Natural Gas | 15 | 27% |
| Renewables | 17 | 30% |
Table 1 – Today‘s Global Electricity Generation by Source
Shifting the full grid to renewables would require massive scaling of solar and wind deployments in particular. Total installed wind and solar capacity would need to grow from ~1400GW today to ~7000GW by 2030. This pace of growth would accelerate the recent trends:
| Year | Added Solar Capacity | Added Wind Capacity |
|---|---|---|
| 2020 | 135 GW | 93 GW |
| 2021 | 156 GW | 94 GW |
Table 2 – Recent Solar and Wind Installation Rates
Delivering this scale of capacity annualized for a decade would compel…
[Article continues analyzing each aspect of the plan in detail. Additional topics covered later include:- Transport electrification forecasts and EV market trends
- Technology and economics around heat pumps
- Electricity usage in manufacturing cement, steel, aluminum
- Biofuel vs synthetic e-fuels for aviation
- Projected investments and jobs created building renewable infrastructure
- Related initiatives like Megapack that align with Master Plan
- Potential Master Plan Part 4 projections]
