In 2006, Elon Musk unveiled a blog post titled "The Secret Tesla Motors Master Plan" – a scrappy, Silicon Valley-style vision focused on rapidly rolling out electric vehicles while generating revenue to fund more affordable options. This iteration saw success with the high-end Tesla Roadster and Model S.
Fast forward to 2016, and Musk was ready to reveal the next phase of his grand vision – Part 2 of the Master Plan. If the initial plan was about bootstrapping a startup, Part 2 read like a sweeping manifesto from an established corporate leader rather than an underdog entrepreneur. It doubled down on Tesla‘s ambitious mission to accelerate the world‘s transition to sustainable energy and transportation.
So what exactly was the vision behind "Master Plan Part 2"? Let‘s break it down while also analyzing progress and setbacks over the past 7 years.
Overview: Four Pillars of Sustainability
Musk organized the plan around four key pillars:
- Integrated Clean Energy Generation and Storage: Combine Tesla and SolarCity to provide integrated solar, batteries, and EVs
- Expand EV Product Line to cover personal vehicles, public transport, and freight trucks
- Achieve Full Vehicle Autonomy with self-driving technology orders of magnitude safer than human drivers
- Enable Shared Vehicle Fleets to allow Teslas to make money autonomously when not in use
It was a bold vision but one that critics argued was light on specifics and highly optimistic on timelines. As we‘ll analyze below, Tesla has seen success on some fronts but also faced big misses and delays on other key promises.
Tesla Energy – Challenges and Missed Targets
A core tenet of Part 2 was enhancing Tesla‘s clean energy capabilities through solar and storage, an area Musk called "important for accomplishing a sustainable energy future." To drive progress, he proposed combining Tesla with SolarCity, marking one of his most controversial decisions.
The Troubled SolarCity Acquisition
- Tesla acquired SolarCity in 2016 for $2.6B despite objections from some shareholders
- Deal saddled Tesla with SolarCity‘s $3B debt while also triggering 3 shareholder lawsuits alleging conflict of interest issues
- Though Musk won the lawsuits, the acquisition integration missed targets including:
| Product | Target | Actual |
|---|---|---|
| Solar Roof Installations | 1,000/week by 2019 | "Significantly pulled back" 2021 |
| Solar Market Share | #1 by 2019 | 6th Place with 4% US market share |
Lackluster Adoption
Beyond the SolarCity integration challenges, product adoption has lagged as well:
- Tesla energy revenue in 2022 was just $3.9B – less than 5% of company total
- Company solar deployments fell year-over-year by 48% in 2021 and 23% in 2022
- Tesla lost pole position as the top residential solar provider in 2021 after 4 years
So while Tesla Energy offers products like Powerwall, Solar Roof, and grid services, it has fallen well short of Musk‘s vision for an integrated, renewable energy ecosystem catalyzing sustainability.
EV Line – Solid Progress But Production Goals Missed
On the electric vehicle front, Master Plan Part 2 called for rapidly expanding Tesla‘s product portfolio "to address all major segments." Here there has been more measurable progress:
Personal Vehicles
- Successfully launched Models 3 and Y
- Model 3 became best selling EV globally though missed earlier volume projections
- 2018 Goal: 6,000 cars/week. Actual Q1 2023: production rate of ~5,000/week
- Upcoming Cybertruck and Semi Truck on the horizon
- Set to launch lower-cost platform for $25k EV (though this target continues slipping)
Public Transport
- Tesla unveiled concept for 12-person electric bus with amenities and removed center aisle
- Haven‘t revealed prototypes or production timelines for public transport options
- Focused on solving autonomy first
Freight Trucks
- Tesla Semi truck repeatedly delayed – new production goals aim for 50k units by 2024
- Reservations suggest strong demand, but manufacturing ramp is key hurdle
So in EVs, Tesla has outperformed legacy automakers. Their meteoric rise catalyzed urgency around electric mobility. But despite impressive growth, Tesla continues facing manufacturing bottlenecks limiting its production scale-up rate.
Autonomy – The Challenge of True Self-Driving
One of the most eye-catching (or eye-rolling for critics) parts of "Master Plan, Part Deux" was its optimism on achieving full self-driving capabilities:
"All Tesla vehicles will have the hardware necessary to be fully self-driving… We expect to be able to conduct demonstration drives that are fully autonomous routes by end of next year (2017)."
In typical Elon fashion, he acknowledged the technology was harder than anticipated but still backed aggressive timeliness. Let‘s compare Musk‘s shifting predictions on full autonomy with reality:
| Year | Musk Prediction | Actual Progress |
|---|---|---|
| 2016 | Demo drives fully autonomous by 2017 | Later called target "too optimistic" |
| 2019 | 1 million Tesla robo-taxis operating in 2020 | Still no regulatory approval |
| 2022 | Claims Teslas will reach Level 5 autonomy this year | Remains at Level 2 automation |
- Tesla does offer an FSD Beta software product but it still requires vigilant human monitoring
- True full autonomy without human oversight remains elusive
Building a fully self-driving vehicle platform has proven exponentially harder given the near infinite edge cases. While Tesla‘s autopilot offers assisted driving capabilities today, Musk himself concedes that general full autonomy still appears years away.
Shared Fleets – Contingent on Solving Autonomy First
Finally, Master Plan Part 2 put forward a vision for vehicle sharing once full autonomy was solved:
"You will also be able to add your car to the Tesla shared fleet just by tapping a button on the Tesla phone app…it would generate income for you when you‘re not using it."
The premise was owners could opt to allow their idle Teslas to provide autonomous ride sharing or personal transportation services like a "robotaxi." But this business model relies entirely on conquering full autonomy first then achieving regulatory approval.
With those challenges still on the horizon after years of inflated timelines, the robotaxi network remains speculative at this stage.
What‘s Next? Production Scaling and Realistic Targets
Reviewing progress on Master Plan Part 2 makes clear that Tesla has profoundly accelerated the shift towards electric mobility while catalyzing the traditional auto giants to follow suit. But for all of Elon Musk‘s visionary thinking, Tesla also continues to struggle with production bottlenecks, quality control issues, and still overpromising on timelines for game changing advancements like full autonomy.
As Tesla looks ahead, pragmatically scaling production and setting realistic targets will be just as crucial as imagining the future through Musk‘s Master Plan Part 3 which he hints may cover AI, robots, lower cost vehicles and other innovations. But wherever Tesla goes next, expectations have been tuned to account for Elon Standard Time. Big visions are easy – it‘s drilling down on the execution where rubber meets road.
