You may be considering investments in electric vehicle manufacturers Tesla or Lucid amid surging demand for EVs. But with vastly different track records and growth trajectories, deciding which stock to add to your portfolio becomes key. This analysis compares Tesla and Lucid across production capabilities, financials, expansion plans and other vital criteria to determine which stock looks primed to deliver better returns in both the near-term and long run.
Overview
Industry leader Tesla has a dominant position thanks to vast production capacity, strong margins and brand appeal. However, rapidly-growing Lucid has excitement around its technology and long-term ambition. This analysis weighs figures and projections around:
- Management Execution
- Production Facilities and Platform Flexibility
- Vehicle Model Pipeline and Addressable Markets
- Financial Health and Valuation Multiples
- Competitive Forces Impacting Market Share
Crunching the numbers around past performance and future scenarios provides perspective on risk-adjusted returns investing in Tesla or Lucid may offer across different time horizons. Deep-diving on operational capabilities also reveals which company looks better positioned to capitalize on surging EV demand.
Management Report Card
Behind every high-flying growth company lies an executive team setting the vision and direction. Comparing the track records of Tesla CEO Elon Musk against Lucid‘s top boss Peter Rawlinson points to some revealing differences:
Tesla
- Elon Musk – Founded multiple billion-dollar companies (PayPal, SpaceX); Led Tesla from near-bankruptcy to today‘s trillion-dollar valuation; Drove production scaling 20x within a decade
- Zachary Kirkhorn – Veteran Tesla finance executive promoted to CFO in 2019 after leading profitable quarters
- Andrew Baglino – Leads Tesla powertrain development; Credited with various manufacturing and design innovations
- Key Tenure – Much of current executive team has 5+ years guiding Tesla
Lucid
- Peter Rawlinson – Veteran auto engineer from Model S, Jaguar and Lotus; Joined Lucid as CTO in 2013, promoted to CEO in April 2019
- Sherry House – Recently hired from Nike April 2022 as CFO after having no prior auto experience
- Eric Bach – Moved from Tesla to Lucid last year to lead vehicle engineering after nearly 15 years under Musk
- Key Tenure – Many top executives only started within the last 1-2 years
Lucid has an executive roster full of legitimate auto industry talent. However, Tesla‘s management continuity in scaling manufacturing and engineering complex EVs seems to give it an edge thus far.
Production and Platforms Now…and By 2025
Manufacturing prowess is vital for rider EV demand over the coming years. Comparing output capacity and flexibility suggests Tesla maintains leadership for meeting volume even as Lucid starts playing catch-up:
Annual Global Production Capacity
| OEM | 2021 | 2022 | Projected 2025 | Growth (21-25) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla | 930,000 | 1.9 million | 8 million | 9.6x |
| Lucid | – | 7,100+ | 90,000 | N/A |
*Tesla projections if new factories meet stated timelines; Lucid based on Phase 2 Arizona factory plans
Number of Production Facilities
| OEM | U.S. | Asia | EMEA | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| Lucid | 1 | – | – | 1 |
Platforms/Vehicle Architectures
| OEM | Proprietary Platforms | Models Supported | New Platforms Announced |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla | 2 | 6 | Cybertruck |
| Lucid | 1 | 2 | – |
Tesla maintains more manufacturing hubs worldwide while Lucid only first started rolling pre-production vehicles out of its Arizona facility in late 2021. Tesla‘s multi-year headstart expanding production infrastructure is also evidenced by over 4 times as many vehicle models delivered off its proprietary EV platforms.
This massive capacity delta will be tough for Lucid to close – even hitting projected 2025 rates probably leaves Tesla churning out almost 100x more EVs annually.
Model Pipelines and Addressable Markets
More vehicle models targeting wider market segments allow EV automakers to grow revenue rapidly amid shifting consumer demand. On this front, Lucid aims to rival Tesla‘s diverse product portfolio over time:
Available Vehicle Models
| OEM | Sedan | SUV | Sports Car | Pickup | Commercial | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1* | 1 | 7 |
| Lucid | 1 | – | – | – | – | 1 |
\Cybertruck in development, production expected 2023
Projected Models By 2025
| OEM | Sedan | SUV | Sports Car | Pickup | Commercial | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| Lucid | 3 | 1 | – | 1 | – | 5 |
Tesla has a significant lead when it comes to model diversity – against just the Air luxury sedan now, Lucid is playing catch-up on hitting timelines for its SUV, pickup and lower-priced models. Ramping production across five vehicle model lines simultaneously will test management.
But if Lucid meets targets for supporting more body styles by mid-decade, its addressable market increases significantly – from affluent individuals to more mainstream households needing family/fleet transports.
Financial Health Report Card
With ambitious growth plans, balance sheet resilience becomes critical for funding expansion costs. Again Tesla shows greater financial rigor though Lucid has sizable backing to fuel its climb:
Key Financial Metrics – Last 12 Months
| OEM | Revenue | Gross Margin | EBITDA Margin | Cash On Hand | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla | $53B | 30% | 19% | $22B | $700B |
| Lucid | $27M | N/A | (2,100%) | $4.6B | $22B |
Negative EBITDA margin for Lucid shows high costs as production starts – this expected to shift by 2025 if targets met.
Tesla‘s margins during rapid scaling highlight excellent expense control, while Lucid‘s small early revenue means investors are still betting primarily on potential. But over $4 billion cash for Lucid aids near-term funding needs.
Valuation differences display an almost 30x premium for Tesla – justified by proven tech leadership and demand thus far. Lucid‘s capitalization by contrast mainly reflects its growth prospects rather than current fundamentals.
Competitive Forces
Though Tesla has dominated EV sales so far, increasing competition from traditional automakers and startups makes maintaining share tougher:
Recent U.S. EV Sales Share
| Year | Tesla | Closest Competitor |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 65% | Ford Mustang Mach E (4.7%) |
| 2022 | 65% | Ford F-150 Lightning (9.3%) |
Ford‘s early traction with electric versions of popular models shows legacy brands adopting quicker than anticipated. Meanwhile, new players like China-based BYD already top Tesla in global volume thanks to overseas output.
Lucid too faces rivals in luxury electric space – Porsche, Mercedes and Audi are pouring billions into premium brand EVs that could challenge the Air sedan on range, performance and styling by mid-decade.
Both Tesla and Lucid also have to watch for tech disruption from autonomous driving entrants over the longer term. For now, Tesla retains dominant market share in U.S. but looking globally it slipped to just 12% in 2022. The scaling road ahead has plenty of congestion for EV frontrunners.
The Verdict: Tesla Still Wins on Most Near-Term Metrics
Tesla maintains technology and operational advantages that should keep its stock outperforming Lucid for at least the next couple years. Beyond a commanding market share lead currently, Tesla‘s consistent 30% gross margins even amid rapid expansion showcase excellent relative financial health. And a ballooning cash pile over $20 billion against modest debt reduces risks as factory capacity balloons targeting 8 million deliveries by 2025.
Lucid by comparison likely needs another $5 billion in capital over the next 3 years to fund its manufacturing and product roadmap. And delays getting Arizona plant output to targeted levels already casts doubt around aiming to produce half a million EVs annually by mid-decade. It may take deep into the 2020s before Lucid has the vertically-integrated supply chain, model lineup and global factory presence to rival Tesla.
So while this David vs. Goliath battle seems positioned to rage across the decade, Tesla retains superior capability today to capture surging EV demand. Its stock should maintain substantial premium multiples so long as execution remains excellent. If seeking maximum long-term upside for short-term risk, Lucid Group has tremendous runway…but the road to get there promises plenty of hairpin turns.
