Overview: The Long, Winding Road to Electric Vehicle Adoption

Experimentation with electric vehicles (EVs) first began over 200 years ago soon after the invention of the battery. But transforming this promising technology into a practical, mass-produced form of transportation has been a slow, uneven battle spanning two centuries.

Early electric carriages and locomotives saw brief popularity in the 1800s before internal combustion engines swiftly superseded them. Cost, range and infrastructure challenges would severely limit EVs role for more than 100 years to follow. Well-intentioned but stunted projects popped up across decades, never quite escaping niche status.

Today, EVs finally appear poised for an enduring mainstream breakthrough. Soaring investment, rapidly improving battery technology and expanding public infrastructure signal the start of a new era. Mass adoption is expected over the coming decade, with electric models projected to account for over half of new car sales globally by 2040. [1]

But this seemingly sudden success has been over 180 years in the making…

The First Sparks of the Electric Vehicle Movement (1800s-1900s)

While the origins of the automobile itself stretch back to the late 1700s, a radically different vision for powering these “horseless carriages” emerged at the start of the 19th century.

In 1800, Italian inventor Alessandro Volta developed the first true battery – the voltaic pile. Capable of continuous stable current output, this groundbreaking invention enabled a wave of rapid experimentation and innovation over the following decades.

Scientists and eager inventors in Europe and America quickly co-opted battery technology for a wide array of novel practical applications. This included early electric lighting, communications equipment and a bold new entrant by the 1820s – electric vehicles.

Early Electric Vehicle Innovations

• 1828 – Anyos Jedlik, a Hungarian inventor, builds a tiny model electric vehicle powered by an early electric motor design. While not full-sized or practical, it demonstrated the potential of electric propulsion [2].

• 1832-1839 – Scottish innovator Robert Anderson develops the first crude but functioning full-sized electric carriage. His second model could reportedly travel 4 mph and cover up to 4 miles per charge. However it used heavy non-rechargeable batteries that had to be swapped out once drained [3].

Anderson’s pioneering electric vehicle sparked great public and investor interest in this promising technology over the decade that followed. The limitations of early battery technology soon became apparent however.

By the early 20th century, over 30 different viable electric car models populated city streets in Europe and America. Smooth, silent operation and lack of noxious fumes proved highly advantageous in crowded urban environments.

But long multi-hour charging times and high battery costs restricted most electric cars to short-range city duty. As Henry Ford’s Model T exploded in popularity from 1908 onward, the electric car’s brief moment in the sun soon faded. Let’s examine what led to their rapid downfall over the next decades.

The Rise and Fall of Early Electric Cars (1900 – 1930)

In 1902, the Studebaker electric car became the first mass-produced EV in history…

Brief Resurgences Outshone by Gasoline (1930s – 1990s)

Over the next 70 years, periodic resurgences occurred but internal combustion continued to thoroughly dominate road transportation globally…

The Modern Electric Revolution (2008 – Present)

After over a century of false starts, electric vehicles finally charged into the mainstream early in the 21st century. Much credit is owed to a tiny California startup and its brash, visionary leader for lighting this spark.

Tesla Motors burst onto the scene in 2008, capturing worldwide attention with their blistering quick Roadster sports car. Boasting 245 miles of range and a 3.7 second 0-60 mph time, this $109,000 2-seater sent shockwaves through the auto industry – electric cars could be fast, sexy and desirable. [4]

Tesla followed up their smash debut by methodically expanding into larger, more affordable mass market segments with the Model S luxury sedan, Model 3 midsize sedan and Model Y compact SUV.

Meanwhile other automakers raced to launch their own competing EV models to match surging consumer demand. From just 400,000 vehicles in 2015, global electric car sales have grown over 16 fold in just six years – topping 6.7 million units sold in 2021 [5].

Let‘s examine how this technology is now rapidly transforming transportation across society:

Applications Across Air, Land and Sea

Electrification efforts today expand far beyond the passenger car segment. Continuous improvements in battery density have unlocked new use cases ranging from aircraft to enormous mining trucks.

Public Transit

Cities worldwide have invested heavily in electric bus fleets this past decade to reduce noise, air pollution and carbon emissions. Chinese automaker BYD dominates this sphere, delivering over 7,000 electric buses globally just in 1H 2022 [6].

North America and Europe represent strong growth areas as public transit agencies continue transitioning their fleets to take advantage of robust EV options from manufacturers like New Flyer, Nova Bus and Volvo [7].

Major metropolitan regions like London, Los Angeles and Singapore have pledged to fully electrify their bus networks by 2030 or earlier. Purpose-built rapid charging stations located along routes help keep e-buses consistently on the move.

Commercial and Industrial Transport

A diverse array of commercial EV models have recently come to market as this technology proves its merit across rigorous daily use cases.

Delivery Vans

Frequent start-stop urban delivery routes are an optimal initial commercial application for electric drivetrains. EV leader Amazon has pre-ordered 100,000 electric vans from startup Rivian to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2040 [8].

Heavy Freight Trucks

Class 8 freight trucks are following suit – models from Daimler, Volvo and Tesla promise ranges exceeding 250 miles per charge even while hauling 80,000 pounds of cargo. Electric motors slash operating costs by up to 70% compared to diesel while delivering instant torque [9].

Short-haul and regional routes will likely electrify first given current battery ranges. However new mega-charging stations tailored to the needs of transport depots and truck stops aim to expand e-truck adoption for longer routes [10].

Mining Vehicles

The mining industry has also eagerly adopted first-generation electric haul trucks like Komatsu‘s 980E. Capable of 330 kWh maximum capacity, these trucks deliver strong productivity for 6-8 hour shifts before recharging overnight [11].

Renewable charging options integrated directly at remote mining sites make electrification even more appealing. By eliminating diesel particulate matter and NOx emissions, electric drivetrains also dramatically improve air quality for operations situated underground.

Several piloted electric aircraft models such as the Velis Electro promise short-haul airline routes of up to 250 miles could be feasible by 2025. Most mainstream manufacturers including Airbus are targeting larger hybrid or hydrogen planes to cut emissions.

Norway‘s state-owned airline aims to electrify all domestic flights by 2040 given most routes are under an hour long [12]. Aviation will rely on continued battery energy density improvements over the next decade to make this vision reality.

The marine industry is also embracing the electric revolution, from pleasure boats to container ships…

The Future is Electric

This time, the electric future has staying power like never before. The confluence of technological progress, ecological imperative and economic competitiveness suggests electrification will transform transportation imminently and irreversibly over the coming decades.

Automakers have already invested over $515 billion in EV development programs worldwide over just the next five years [13]. Continued rapid advancements across batteries, motors and power electronics aim to expand real-world ranges and charging capabilities while reducing costs ever further.

Industry experts predict electric vehicles will reach initial purchase price parity with gas models globally by 2025. Total cost of ownership – facting in lower fueling and maintenance expenses – already favors EVs in an increasing number of markets [14].

This cost competitiveness likely represents the tipping point that ushers in mainstream adoption. Established automakers are rolling out electric models faster than ever across vehicle segments, while dozens of well-funded startups promise a Cambrian explosion of options.

BloombergNEF’s global EV forecast sees explosive growth in yearly sales numbers over the coming decades: [15]

Electric vehicles seem destined to claim a dominant 58% share of new car sales globally by 2040. When incorporated into mobility-as-a-service offerings, costs could fall low enough by 2030 to completely eliminate the need for personal car ownership in many regions.

This next generation of vehicles promises to transform society as profoundly as Fords Model T once did. After 200 years of dashed hopes, the electric future has finally arrived. Buckle up for the ride!

1. BloombergNEF Electric Vehicle Outlook 2022
2. History Channel – Who Invented the First Electric Car?
3. Leccisi, E., et al.. History and Evolution of Electric Vehicles and Hybrid Electric Vehicles. Electronics, 2020.
4. Lajunen, A. Lifecycle costs and charging requirements of electric buses with different charging methods. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2018
5. BloombergNEF Electric Vehicle Sales Forecast 2022
6. BYD Press Release – 7,073 electric buses sold in 1H 2022
7. IDTechEx Commercial Electric Trucks Report 2022
8. Amazon Press Release – 100,000 Electric Delivery Vans 2030 Climate Pledge
9. Goldman Sachs – Electric Heavy Trucks Report 2022
10. Electrive – "Mega-Charging" for Trucks and Buses
11. InsideEVs – Komatsu Launches EV Mining Trucks in North America 2021
12. Aviation Today – Norway Aims for All-Electric Domestic Flights by 2040
13. Reuters. Factbox: Automakers Plans for Electric Mobility in 2022 and Beyond
14. BloombergNEF Electric Vehicle Outlook 2022
15. BloombergNEF Electric Vehicle Outlook 2022