Imagine hopping on an aircraft in Los Angeles after breakfast and landing in Shanghai in time for dinner – without having to set your watch 7 hours ahead. US startup Boom Supersonic wants to turn this vision into reality within this decade through development of Overture – a next-generation commercial supersonic jet. But does this goal pass the credibility test when weighed against the practical challenges still facing mainstream supersonic flight? Let‘s crunch the numbers on what it would take for Overture to offer trans-Pacific business class travelers breakfast in California and dinner in China on the very same day.
Quick Historical Background on Supersonic Transports (SSTs)
While supersonic passenger travel vanished nearly 20 years ago with Concorde‘s retirement, the appeal remains sky-high. By significantly slashing travel times, routine supersonic flight could completely reshape premium airline routes.
| Aircraft | Top Speed | Passenger Capacity | Range | First Flight | Retired |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Concorde | Mach 2 | 92-128 | 4,000 miles | 1969 | 2003 |
| Boeing 2707 (Unbuilt) | Mach 2.7 | 234 | 4,000 miles | Planned 1972 | Cancelled 1971 |
| Overture (In Development) | Mach 1.7 | 65-88 | 4,250 miles | Planned 2026 | Targeting 2029 Entry |
The appeal is again spurring attempts by Boom Supersonic, Aerion and startups to deliver where past efforts like the Concorde failed commercially. Their visions leverage advanced engines, fuels, materials and more to tame noise, emissions and operating costs – enabling mainstream routes.
Boom‘s Overture Would Rip Through Lengthy Flights Between Megatropolises
Boom Supersonic was founded in 2014 to accomplish what no commercial plane maker has achieved since Concorde‘s 2003 grounding – sustainable supersonic flight. The 55-88 seat Overture jet under development specifically targets hub-to-hub routes like LA to Shanghai, where halving travel duration would provide outsized value.
Let‘s break down what we know around Overture‘s design and how Boom intends to make 7-hour trans-Pacific hops feasible:
Speed and Range: Cruising at 1300-1600 mph, Overture would chop the roughly ~5200 mile great circle distance from LAX to Shanghai Hongqiao down to a 7 hour nonstop. Its Mach 1.7 max velocity and 4250+ mile design range are calibrated for optimal trans-oceanic efficiency.
engines: Key innovation comes from custom Symphony turbofans that use variable inlet and exhaust to provide heavy thrust while limiting noise, fuel burn and emissions during cruise.
Advanced Materials: Extensive use of lightweight composites will boost structural efficiency for range and economy.
65-88 Seats: This positions Overture between regional jets and 737-sized aircraft for right-sizing economics.
Travel Time Analysis: How Much Quicker Could Overture Cross the Pacific?
Let‘s quantify the time savings by looking at current flight durations on modern aircraft between major West Coast US airports and Shanghai:
| Route | Great Circle Distance | Typical Flight Time |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco to Shanghai | 5362 miles | 11hr 55min |
| Seattle to Shanghai | 4998 miles | 10hr 20min |
| Los Angeles to Shanghai | 5214 miles | 13-14 hours |
On United, Delta and other carriers, LA to Shanghai consumes a tiresome 12.5 to 14 hour overnight haul aboard cramped twin aisle jets like 777s and 787s.
Compare that to Boom‘s stated 7 hour target flight time for Overture connecting the same city pair.
That would erase 6 to 7 hours inbound and outbound – freeing up an entire work day that otherwise vanished in the clouds. Instead of flying mostly through darkness, passengers could depart at breakfast from LA and arrive for a late Shanghai dinner in time catch the lights along the Bund.
And for commercial flyers facing yet lengthier multi-leg journeys beyond Shanghai, tight same-day connections become far more feasible slashing layover allowances.
Clearly for frequent China travelers from California, saving up to half the travel time would prove profoundly valuable both professionally and personally.
Outlook on Delivering 7 Hours LA to Shanghai by 2029
With such massive time savings theoretically possible, what actually are the prospects for Overture to enter service by 2029 as Boom promises? Can the technical, funding, manufacturing, regulatory and market challenges align to support a timeline under 7 years till first passenger flights?
Aviation experts and analysts present varying perspectives…
"Realizing routine long-haul supersonic flight by 2030 seems like a stretch goal, but Boom‘s progress to date indicates they have a fighting chance of pulling it off if everything goes right," said Dr. Lynn Hunt, Associate Dean of Aerospace Engineering at MIT. She cited Overture‘s groundbreaking designevolution and XB-1 successes as promising indicators.
Alternately, Lewis Simms, columnist for FlightGlobal, argues "Significant financial, policy and environmental obstacles remain before we see these shiny new supersonic business jets fulfilling their promise… beyond flashy CGI renderings, Boom has miles yet to go delivering the actual finished and certified Overture aircraft."
Despite debates around the timeline, most industry voices agree Boom Supersonic has the most credible roadmap globally for reviving mainstream supersonic air travel.
Boom‘s Remaining Milestones Toward 2029 Overture Debut
Reviewing program markers still ahead illustrates the sheer scale of tasks remaining:
2025: Complete factory facilities enabling full airframe production
2026: Roll out the initial Overture prototype
2027: Commence ground tests and low/high-speed taxi trials
2028: Conduct entire manned flight test program
2029: Obtain FAA certification for commercial service
2029: Launch Overture passenger services with selected airlines
Vast financial resources remain vital to reaching these milestones concurrently. Boom must hire hundreds of additional engineers and machinists to staff up facilities turning early prototypes into certified aircraft ready for volume manufacturing.
And that all has to happen on budget despite the aerospace industry‘s reputations for requiring bottomless funding.
Final Analysis: LA to Shanghai in 7 Hours?
My judgement is that while Overture indisputably faces substantial budget, engineering, policy and marketplace uncertainties, Boom retains a reasonable probability of commercializing supersonic trans-Pacific flights sometime in the 2030s timeframe.
Evolving designs leveraging the most advanced computers, materials and propulsive innovations give Boom‘s aircraft – still early in its maturation – distinctly better prospects than past failed SST attempts from the pre-digital 1960s.
And with ticket prices certainly exceeding today‘s long-haul business class fares, a viable market clearly exists amongst financial firms, film studios and high-tech manufacturers prepared to pay premiums for radically faster staff transport critical gritty face-to-face business dealings in China.
So in my estimation, let‘s give even odds to Overture meeting their 7 hour LA to Shanghai target before 2035.
What‘s your take? Please share your perspective on the prospects for routine supersonic trans-Pacific travel in the comments section below!
